Written by Andrew Wooden
Dell’Oro Group’s RAN 2030 Advanced Research Report asserts that, despite the uncertainties in the RAN market, there are reason to be optimistic about it’s long-term growth prospects.
The report says that after growing at a 2% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) in the 4G era, global RAN revenues are projected to increase at a 1% CAGR between 2020 and 2030, ultimately culminating in investments of over $40 billion at the end of that period.
The ‘base case scenario’ is built on the assumption that RAN revenues peaked in 2021, and will continue to trend downward before picking up momentum in the latter part of the decade – so this is a message of optimism for the long term rather than the short or medium term for the market, which has been stuttering of late.
“The economic forces that have shaped the Radio Access Network (RAN) market over the past 30-plus years are expected to influence risk appetite and RAN investments for the remainder of this decade,” reads the release. “Despite the current period of heightened uncertainty and increased scepticism about the telecom and RAN outlook, our long-term perspective on this market remains unchanged.
“We believe that the tangible and intangible assets operators have amassed over the past decades are essential for addressing the evolving connectivity needs of consumers and businesses. While new business models and competitors will emerge, we still foresee operators playing a leading role in providing connectivity by the end of this decade.”
However the Dell’Oro report also says RAN’s growth prospects ‘remain challenging’. Operators can increase capital intensities over the short term with the deployment of new technologies but that acceleration tends to be temporary, we’re told, which creates a ‘relatively flat RAN trendline over time, ultimately limited by operator revenue trends.’
